Coco Gauff could pass Aryna Sabalenka for world No. 2 in Madrid

Coco Gauff controls her own destiny in her bid to rise to a new career-high WTA ranking of world No. 2 in Madrid. The reigning US Open champion is hot on the heels of Aryna Sabalenka for the No. 2 spot, with Sabalenka defending 1,000 points as the returning champion at the clay-court WTA 1000 event.

Gauff trails Sabalenka by 590 points in the April 22 edition of the WTA rankings, but is only defending 65 points this fortnight. With last year's Madrid points removed, Gauff has a 345-point lead over Sabalenka, who must reach at least the semifinals to retain her standing.

If Gauff records two wins to reach the last 16, Sabalenka would need to reach the final to stay at No. 2. If Gauff reaches the semis, only a successful title defense would be enough for Sabalenka to hold her off. Should the pair meet in the Madrid final—in what would be a rematch of their 2023 US Open final and 2024 Australian Open semi—it would double as a shootout for the No. 2 spot.

Elena Rybakina also has an outside shot to reach world No. 2 for the first time in Madrid, though she would need help from both Sabalenka and Gauff. The Kazakhstani would need to win the title along with Gauff losing before the last 16 and Sabalenka failing to reach the final.

The third-seeded Gauff will open her Madrid campaign against Arantxa Rus on Thursday, with wild card Amanda Anisimova potentially beyond that. Naomi Osaka could await in the last 16. Sabalenka will meet Magda Linette in her opening match, with Danielle Collins a potential last-16 opponent.